World War 3 - Red Sea area

Updated 6 March 2024

A bit of shipping news from the WW3  front. It's Russia, Iran (mainly Shia muslims) with Hamas (Sunni muslim but backed by Iran), and Yemen (Shia muslim Houthis) versus USA, UK and others eg 5 eyes / EU countries and Israel.   The conflict has started to be played out in and around several of the world's principal trade route choke points in the Red Sea area.  With effect from 1 Jan 2024 , there will be a war risk surcharge for shipments to Israel.  This will include those middle east choke points and so  costs are likely to increase, whilst availability of everything is likely to decrease as global supply lines collapse. 

Grant Shapps is MP for Welwyn Hatfield & UK Secretary of State for Defence. On X platform (formerly Twitter) he said that overnight 15/16 Dec 2023, HMS Diamond shot down a drone in the Red Sea that was attacking shipping.

schapps
Grant Shapps on X (twitter ) 16 Dec 2023

United Kingdom Marine Trade Organisation (UKMTO) has a map which give some idea of the number of some recent attacks on shipping in the Red Sea area.  Shipping has to pass by Yemen and other risky countries and then to EU or Israel area via Suez Canal.   

UKMTO map of attacks Red Sea area

 Lloyds  List carries reports about some attacks on container ships in the Bab el Mandeb (strait between Yemen and Djibouti) . 

lloyds list 15 Dec 2023 - attacks Bab el Mandeb

Lloyds List intelligence reporter James Baker is saying that the Maersk container shipping company has stopped it's company ships voyages through the Red Sea because of attacks from Houthi (Yemen) forces.  Tradewinds website agrees, and adds that Hapag Lloyd shipping company is also taking similar action. 

Thurs 14 Dec 2023 - A near miss incident reported on the "Maersk Gibraltar" vessel .  Gcaptain website reports that the US military determined that it was targeted by missile launched from Yemen. 

Fri 15 Dec 2023 - Attack on Hapag Lloyd company ship  "Al Jasra" thought to have been struck by a drone causing a fire but no one injured. 

Dawn website reports that around same time further South - attack on 208m long container ship  "MSC Palatium 111"

 Dec 13th 2023 -      Maritime Executive reports Houthi attack on chemical tanker "Ardmour Encounter".  The tanker was transporting jet fuel from India to Europe - vessel needed assistance from US and French navy. 

12 Dec 2023 - Skuld -   reports Yemen Houthis announcement that they will attack all shipping they believe headed to, or owned by Israel.

3 Dec 2023 AP News - 3 commercial ships in the Red Sea attacked by Houthi missiles 

Severe blow to global trade 

As the maritime website Gcaptain reports , the trouble in the Red Sea has a serious adverse effect on global trade with increased risks, delays, danger and therefore costs.   Gcaptain also describes the situation at Panama with ships now taking the long route around South America. The Panama situation may ease in January 2024 if rains provide the fresh water. 

 Here are the world's principal trade choke points on a map from the visual capitalist website.  Two of those choke points are in the Red Sea area. 

Mapping world trade choke points supply lines 

Visual capitalist

In addition to the middle East world war continuing to ignite, there are also problems in the Panama Canal according to the Maersk website.  .   The canal uses fresh water to operate lock gates and that water is in short supply due to drought .  So ships are lined up and bidding to be first in the queue.  The canal authorities are also putting limits on the size of ship that it allows through. 

The Panama Canal news from Hapag Lloyd website dated 6 December 2023 suggests that many ships were planning to take a different route ---- via the RED SEA!. Oh dear . .  

Go to the visual capitalist website for an easy read about the problems with each choke point. 

Caution urged re private armed guards

Shipping Industry companies to be cautious about using armed guards especially in the red sea area.  The fear is that they might actually end up firing at military forces rather than pirates which would result in significant escalation.  (Reuters report).

Reuters
Reuters News Agency 15 Dec 2023

Red Sea area continues to be a risk

1130am 6 March 2024 - Bulk Carrier hit by missile .  US Central Command 6th March 2024 1130am Sanaa time - Centcom on X(twitter) said that an anti ship ballistic missile was launched from Houthi controlled area of Yemen.  Missile struck the Bulk carrier vessel "True Confidence" killing 3 crew and seriously injuring several more.  The crew abandoned ship due to damage and risk. 

Centcom on X 6 March 2024 - True Confidence hit.