Human numbers

 Bill Rees is a bio-ecologist, ecological economist, former Director and Professor Emeritus of the University of British Columbia’s School of Community and Regional Planning.  He presents a terrifying summary of our situation on Earth. Basically says that there unsustainable numbers of us on Earth and a crash is coming. 

Bill Rees on the Planet Critical podcast


How does most of the world operate?

Most societies on the planet operate under the incorrect assumption that human beings are somehow  outside of nature, and can control nature, and that any connection between the natural world and the human system is irrelevant. This way of thinking (called neoliberal economics) gives rise to the belief that we can have an economy of infinite growth with no problems. This current way of running our global system is based on our own constructed social narrative.  This means that we don't see how bad our true position or situation really is. 

What is our true position or situation?

We humans are completely dependent on the good health of the ecosphere which is the area of Earth where land, water, air , and energy systems interact and all life exists.

For approx 250,000 years that modern Humans have been on Earth, our population was kept to under 1 billion people by things like disease, shortages of food & water or other resources, or conflicts. But in the last 270 years the human population exploded to 7 Billion.  This was enabled by the industrial revolution where we started using fossil fuels as the energy source to increase our food and scientific development and thus we enabled our population explosion. In the last 11 years it reached 8 Billion people. Developments in human society and technology have overcome natures ability to keep human population in check. 

Humans are an energy demanding organism.  Whenever we move into an area, we completely change the energy and material flows through that habitat at the expense of all non human species.  For example the great plains in USA once fed 60 million Bison (includes those Bison killed by the blackfoot tribe) .  That area now grows wheat for humans across the globe.   Even In places where for example aborigines lived and moved through, we can see a diminishment of nature (eg wiped out 9 species of giant flightless Moa birds in the last 800 years ). And now for example we are destroying the fish stocks.  There are arguements about us also losing up to a third to half of all arable soils on Earth.

Humans are NOT living in normal times. 

 In the last 50,000 years humans have reached all areas of the planet . And wherever humans go , we tend to use up all available resources.  A major problem now is that we think of this last 200 or so years as normal .  It is NOT normal . It is the single most abnormal and destructive period in human history. It is not only consuming all non renewable resources, but is consuming renewable resources faster than ecosystems can regenerate them . And this hasn't even mentioned the pollutants being dumped everywhere. 

Prof Bill Rees is on YouTube


All readily accessible oil is being used up so right now we are scouring the bottom of the sea.  Companies are preparing to drill in the arctic as the ice melts. We are doing the same with minerals for the so called green transition which will mean orders of magnitude increases in production.  We are keeping the consumption and growth mentality .  There is no chance of world's average temperature staying below a 1.5 degrees Celsius increase (measured from that of preindustrial times). 

What should we be doing?

Overshoot means that the current  average material standard on Earth is in excess of what the Earth can sustain.  Climate change is one symptom of "overshoot" and it risks increasing temperatures on Earth to levels which are catastrophic to human life (a runaway hothouse type scenario).   

Energy and materials consumption is higher in first world countries than elsewhere.  So, to achieve a overall a required 50% reduction would require 80% reduction by first world nations.  These are reasonable targets to get within the long term carrying capacity of the Earth. 

So as matter of urgency, the remaining fossil fuels should only be used for essential purposes say in Agriculture and essential transport.  These will be dependent on fossil fuels for the forseeable future.   But things like private cars and most of the airline industry has to be stopped.  Fossil fuels should be rationed and used only for critical uses.  There may be social unrest and war as countries try to gain control of remaining fossil fuels and other major assets. 


Rachel Donald is a climate Journalist and interviewed Bill Rees for her podcast called Planet:Critical.