Not enough minerals
Mark Mills is trained as a physicist. He is a snr fellow at the Manhatten Institute and former Whitehouse advisor. He explained to Forbes magazine why there are not enough minerals in the world. :
""To be blunt: there is simply no possibility that more government funding for wind turbines, silicon solar cells or lithium batteries will lead to a “disruptive” 10-fold gain. All those technologies are approaching physics limits, just as aviation engines have,"
Can the World follow Norway?
In his YouTube presentation of 16 Jan 2023, Mills explains some inescapable realities about the mining of minerals. Using Norway as his first example, Mills shows in this chart that nearly 80% of Norwegian cars are Electric. Norway gets over 90% of it's electricity from renewables. This is why the policies of the world are focused on trying to become more like the Norway of 2022 .
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| Norway 79% EV's in 2022 |
Mills says that for every electric vehicle (EV) purchased in Norway, the buyer has effectively purchased 20 to 30 barrels of energy equivalent (oil, coal, and gas) which is being consumed somewhere else. So as soon as the new EV goes brand new on to a road, it has already in effect consumed the equivalent of 25barrels of oil.
In another of his presentation charts, Mills shows that across the world as at 2020, just 3% of energy was wind and solar. 10% wood, and the rest mostly fossil fuels . Various reports such as Reuters show similar.
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| State of the world energy 2020 |
The question of whether the world can become like Norway is one of velocity, and materials:
velocity: - Wind and solar across the planet is 3% of world energy and so this isn't enough for it to be called a transition. It is one third of the energy that the world gets from burning the old-as-the-hills wood. Moreover, to achieve this 3% , the world has spent approx $5trillion in direct spending over the last 15years to achieve the changes so far.
Minerals essential for transition to renewables
The quantity of minerals needed per unit of power to build the machines and batteries (wind turbines,solar panels, electric vehicles etc) is a key fact to consider.
To build the machines and batteries to replace existing combustion turbines needs a 1000 to 2000% increase in mineral production so as to deliver the same unit of power. And you need something like a 400% increase in minerals and metals (copper cobalt aluminium etc) to deliver the same vehicle (as opposed to a conventional car) .
Looking back to Norway example, they have hydrodams which produce energy 90% of the time. Wind & solar do not do this. So, calculating the energy use, the actual requirement to deliver the same unit of energy to society is a 2000 to 7000% increase in metals required to deliver the same mile of driving, the same hour of heat, the same hour of illumination, and the same energy service to society. This obviously has massive implications.
A Key question is anchored in this next slide:
Looking at the select group of minerals in this slide Mills asks the question about how expensive will the energy transition be - economically, geopolitically, socially and environmentally with machines that are now being built ? Well by way of comparison , a 5% change up or down in commodities (eg oil) has a huge effect on global economies.
The magnitude of the increase in total demand & supply for these minerals in the next 20 years is in the order of 700% to 4000%. If ever this were to be achievable, it would represent the single largest increase in demand /supply of metals / minerals in all of human history. Mills says that this is simply impossible. It all comes down to the mining it is is not even an option in the mining sector .
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| IEA data for selected minerals |
Thinking about things in tonnage terms
Now we look at the amount of materials that humans extract, move or process to keep our way of life going. It's about 100 gigatonnes a year and it is an upward trend. Humans are proposing to transfer energy from mainly liquids and gases , to solids.
Measured in tonnes terms, this would require a 10 fold increase in extraction of minerals and would be equal to the amount for all other purposes combined. This simply won't happen says Mills. These are astonishing numbers and the world is not capable of doing it.
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| OECD chart |
Copper and other metals shortage coming in a year or so
There is a shortage of all metals for the energy transition . many hundreds of new mines will be needed to cope . This is a slow process which takes up to16 years to set up a mine. So within a year or two we will see the shortages.
Unfortunately, the world is not investing even 10% of what is required to set up the mines required for the energy transition. China is the world's refiner of metals and politically this will make things difficult for the Western nations. When the shortages are realised , then price inflation will go up for a long time as miners seek to meet demand. steel, nickel , cobalt, aluminium and many other will increase .
Another interesting fact is that there is sweet spot for mining where you dig out loads of earth and get loads of metal ore . After a while though, you dig out mega loads of earth and get lower amounts of ore meaning that the energy being used to extract it becomes un-economic.
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| VW research about EV versus Diesel car. |
The graph compares the Carbon emissions of an Electric Vehicle (EV) against those of a diesel vehicle . The EV causes the Carbon emission via the grid when it charges the battery. We can see that it is only after about 60k miles that you start to see a reduction in Carbon emission. By the end of it's life the EV vehicle willm have a 20% less emission when compared to the diesel car.
After presenting further interesting stats, Mills concludes that the energy transition has to be about supplementing hydrocarbons and minimising their use rather than replacing them.
Mark Mills YouTube presentation: